jcwf

Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting

ISSN - 2332-2594

Abstract

Analysis of Rainfall Variability and Trends for Better Climate Risk Management in the Major Maize Producing Districts in Northwestern Part of Ethiopia

Tesfaye Wossen Dejenie*, Kindie Tesfaye, Belay Simane and Yenus Ousman

The current study evaluated historical rainfall data for its variability in three districts of the Central Gondar Zone in Ethiopia's northwestern region. The rainfall required for crop production in the research areas is the contribution of rain from June to September (kiremt rain). The annual rainfall total has a higher percentage during the Kiremt season, ranging from 79% at Chilga, 85.6% at Alefa, and 88% at Maksegnit. Rainfall totals from the bega (October to January) and belg (February to May) seasons made up the remaining portion. The lowest CV values for the seasonal fluctuation of rainfall during the kiremt season are 7.7 at Alefa, 7.6 at Chilga, and 17.9 at Maksegnit. The CV is substantially larger for the total rainfall during the bega and belg seasons than it is for the kiremt season, indicating that there is greater temporal variability in the total rainfall during the bega and belg seasons. At Alefa and Chilga locations, the monthly totals were 280 mm and 357 mm respectively in July, while the Maksegnit site recorded 349 mm in August. The average rainy season began on May 21 (142.3 DOY) in Alefa and ended on June 12 (164.2 DOY) in Chilga. On the other hand, the rainy season ends November 3 (308 DOY), November 4 (309 DOY), and November 12 (317 DOY) in Alefa, Chilga, and Maksegnit, respectively. At Maksegnit, Chilga, and Alefa, the mean LGP is 133.3, 136.5, and 143.2, respectively. At Alefa, the likelihood of dry periods lasting more than five days steadily reduces starting on May 21, October 12, and March 1, and then gradually increases again around October 17 and November 1. Therfore, this findings give a clue of understanding the rainfall features and associated to crop production in the study area.

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