Mugume I, Waiswa D, Mesquita MDS, Reuder J, Basalirwa C, Bamutaze Y, Twinomuhangi R, Tumwine F, Sansa Otim J, Jacob Ngailo T, Ayesiga G
Skillful rainfall prediction is important to sectors such as agriculture, health and water resources. The study assessed the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to simulate rainfall over Western Uganda for the period 21st April to 10th May 2013 and tested six cumulus parameterization schemes. The root mean square error, mean error and the sign test method are used to assess the ability of the schemes to simulate rainfall along with an adapted contingency table. Results show that the Grell-Fretas scheme is better at simulating rainfall compared to other schemes over the study period while the Betts-Miller-Janji’c and the Kain-Fritsch schemes overestimated rainfall. However all the schemes under predicted heavy rainfall events but the Betts-Miller-Janjic and the Kain-Fritsch schemes over predicted the light rainfall. The variation of altitude presented a noticeable change in predicted rainfall where an increase of 25% in altitude increased the probability of prediction by 6.5% which shows a key role played by altitude in convection.
