Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting

Adjusting the Taxkorgan's local ecological calendar is supported by a crop-climate model

Sing Chu^{* *}Correspondence: Sing Chu, Editorial Office, Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting, Belgium, Email:

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INTRODUCTION

According to PLS data, GDD and ETc have a considerable impact on crop output. The strong favourable influence of GDD during the growth phase suggests that the recent warmth is advantageous for crop production in these areas. The majority of the effects of ETc throughout the growth stage were unfavourable, indicating the necessity for plenty of water to increase crop yields in the face of continued warming. Early heat accumulation supports the current shift in sowing, and adjusting the crop schedule can theoretically boost yields. Our findings are applicable to farm-level agricultural decisions made in the wake of site-specific fieldwork. In order to increase the local ecological calendars' resilience to climate change, the results of our study can be combined with those from other suitable farming techniques to determine the best planting dates.

The world's food system is being confronted by issues with food security, climate change, biodiversity loss, a lack of adequate land, and water supplies Future food security hinges on sustainably producing enough nutrient-rich food for a world population that is anticipated to reach a peak of over 9 billion people by 2050.So ensuring adequate food production and security under these conditions is one of the major challenges facing human society. weather patterns that are fluctuating. Food security issues, environmental problems, and climate change are all directly correlated with agriculture and pose a threat to both human and planetary wellbeing. Furthermore, climate change has accelerated in recent decades and is anticipated to continue to accelerate in the future, having a particularly negative impact on agricultural systems that are sensitive to climate change (IPCC 2014). Yields are expected to be greatly impacted by global warming. Crop phenology changes, climate trends, and the resources required for production are all elements that have an impact on yield. Multiple cropping systems can be drastically impacted by rising temperatures, which will have a negative influence on food security. Given that China has 8% of the world's arable land and has 19% of the world's population, food security is a crucial issue there. Despite contributing a tiny portion of the country's GDP and providing employment for more than 300 million farmers, agriculture remains an important business in China. As a result, adverse effects from climate change may have an impact on the nation's economic situation. For instance, climate variation from 2001 to 2009 resulted in a net loss of about $203 million in China's corn and soybean sectors in just that year. This demonstrates the growing sensitivity of the agricultural sector of the economy to climate change. Local ecological expertise may help predict local climate change impacts and create adaption strategies. Local ecological knowledge is characterised as a collection of long-standing, culturally specific customs, viewpoints, and perceptions of the immediate environment. Crop damage brought on by rising temperatures can be mitigated by farmer-controlled adaptation measures. The indigenous knowledge of community members regarding rainfall forecast, seasons, crop diversification, and mixed cropping could help to lessen the harmful effects of climate hazards. According to studies, alpine locations around the world are environmentally sensitive and respond more strongly to climate change. Mountains also protect some of the world's most vulnerable ecosystems and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. 25% of the world's land surface is covered by mountains, where the majority of smallholder farming is practiced,which also houses 26% of the world's population). Mountain agriculture heavily relies on the traditional wisdom of mountain dwellers. In areas where smallholder farming predominates, it is particularly challenging to sustainably feed rising populations. Indigenous mountain tribes in the Pamirs have been coordinating seasonal activities for generations by using a time-monitoring system based on their Indigenous knowledge. They can conduct agricultural and other livelihood tasks while keeping an eye on seasonal and environmental changes thanks to this traditional timekeeping. "Ecological calendars" are such knowledge systems for calculating time and giving it significance based on careful observation of one's surroundings. Through context-specific indicators that can react to climate and other seasonal processes that have a direct impact on livelihood activities, these highlight the relative timing of environmental processes.

One example of the potential agricultural uses for ecological calendars is the crop calendar, which might be used to alter and carry out farming operations based on environmental cues. For instance, seasonal arrival dates have changed as a result of global warming; generally speaking, springtime are earlier, autumns are later, and growth seasons are longer. Such changes have an effect locally by changing the phenology, timing of the cropping season, and ideal meteorological conditions for crop development and output. Under such environmental fluctuations, widely used calendar systems like the Gregorian calendar cannot reliably monitor time for agricultural activities. Ecological processes and events' timing fluctuates annually and is become more unpredictable, The Gregorian calendar is less effective for agricultural planning in these circumstances. However, mountain communities have long coordinated their economic activities with regional natural events. The use of local ecological calendars can improve communities' capacity to anticipate climate change by allowing them to time their activities with the particular ecosystems in which they are located.

More study on the subject could have a beneficial effect on the design of a sustainable mountain farming system. Understanding how climate affects crop production in high-mountain areas is crucial because food security and mountain people's socioeconomic status are closely related. To quantify the potential effects of changes in climate, crop-climate models can be used as tools in conjunction with local knowledge systems. Temperature has a significant impact on the timing of planting, the length of the growing season, and agricultural productivity. Increased temperatures have the potential to significantly reduce crop and livestock yields by exceeding the heat stress threshold. The most popular yield predictor metrics are temperature and precipitation. For instance, the base 2 temperature (Tbase) and thermal accumulation have a significant role in regulating the growth and phenology of vegetation. Growing Degree Days (GDD), which are determined using a base calculation, have a major impact on terrestrial ecosystems and can be significantly altered by warming. GDD is a meteorological factor that is significant for field crop management and agricultural growth simulation models. The use of GDD has significantly improved the ability to predict some phenological events, including the time of year, the number of days, The use of GDD has greatly enhanced our ability to anticipate phenological events including the season, number of days, and developmental phases. GDD might be a useful metric for modifying the ecological and agriculture cycles.

The need for water is another crucial element in crop growth and development. Crop traits, management practises, and environmental demands all affect how much water is needed for crops. Evapotranspiration is typically used to determine water needs. Crop Evapotranspiration (ETc) is another significant component that is directly related to crop productivity. Therefore, knowledge of ETc is crucial for crop output and water management. It might offer crucial hints for comprehending the crop calendar's elements relating to water availability.

The purpose of agricultural calendars is future forecasting. Crop development is impacted by the timing of sowing, hence it is important to. Crop development is influenced by sowing date, so understanding how climatic variability will manifest itself throughout the season is required to select the ideal sowing time. While sowing too early in a wet year could expose fruits to pests, sowing too late in a cool year could result in the harvesting of underdeveloped crops. Farm-level adaptation choices are rarely influenced by crop-climate models. These findings, however, explore how crops react to shifting climatic circumstances and offer flexibility for a variety of adaptation strategies. Crop calendars may need to be modified in light of the results of crop-climate models. Our investigation found that residents of Taxkorgan County have created their own cropping calendars that are appropriate for the region's environment. Locals claim that vital crops are now sown earlier than in the past and are also harvested or stored for extended periods of time. Traditional ecological calendars built on community-generated, context-specific phenological knowledge are very adaptable. In this study, we examined how locals observe their surroundings and take environmental cues into account before starting agricultural activity. Their historical understanding of natural occurrences, environmental. They are better able to comprehend how the environment is changing thanks to significant observations made by earlier generations. Changes in agriculture are a result of changes that also affect other ecological events and natural phenomena. Therefore, alterations to ecological calendars that take crop-climate model results into account may be able to help establish the ideal planting dates for significant crops. Our research showed that adjusting agricultural sowing dates was justified, with increasing degree days used to describe changes in the growing season. The model may also be useful for determining how crop phenology and pest phenology relate to other crucial environmental indicators. For effective crop management in the face of climate change, a crop-climate model must be incorporated into the modification of local ecological calendars.