Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting

ISSN - 2332-2594


Revealing a Role of Stratospheric Processes in the Development of Weather of the Republic of Belarus Employing Monitoring Data

Timophey Shlender, Veronika Zhuchkevich, Siarhey Umreika and Aleksandr Krasovski

The article aims at examining the latest trends in stratospheric processes, in particular, the differentiation of total ozone (TO) over the territory of the Republic of Belarus and their relationship with surface atmospheric circulation. As a result of the statistical analysis, the negative correlation link of TO and surface temperature, enabling to correct a medium-term weather forecast, is confirmed. Furthermore, the fact of violation of the correlation between TO and the surface temperature during the spring-summer ozone anomalies is revealed. The hypothesis of the influence of ozone mechanism on tropospheric circulation processes based on the specific case of the July hurricane of 2016 occurred over the territory of Belarus, is theoretically substantiated and practically illustrated. The hurricane has exemplified the partial effect of the stratosphere on the troposphere, demonstrating the influence of jet streams and large gradients in the field of TO on a height of the tropopause. Thus, one has been positive to conclude that summer sharp changes in TO can lead to strong tropopause variations along with the appearance of powerful jet streams in the gap zones resulted in deterioration of the weather conditions in the lower troposphere.